Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
663 AXNT20 KNHC 290452 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Fay has strengthened to a Tropical Storm again, and is centered near 26.0N 45.9W at 29/0300 UTC, or 1200 nm W-SW of the Azores, moving SW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas to 10 ft are within 75 nm in the NW semicircle. Northwesterly vertical wind shear continues to force convection to the south and southeast of the center of Tropical Storm Fay. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 23N to 26N between 43W and 46W. A general SW to W-SW motion is anticipated over the next several days. Some minor fluctuations in intensity may occur through early Wed as convection pulses, before Fay weakens to a post tropical remnant low Wed morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 18N into northwestern Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are found from 14N to 16N between 74W and 76.5W, while scattered moderate convection is found along the NE coast of Colombia between 73W and 74W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near 21N17W and extends to 1011 mb low pres near 21N25.5W then to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N40W to 09N51W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13.5N E of 21N to the African coast, and within 120 nm NW and 210 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 26W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm N of the ITCZ between 45W and 54W and between 60W and 63W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends form the entire Yucatan Peninsula and southeastern Mexico towards the north- northeast and across the southeastern Gulf waters to the offshore waters of western Florida near Cedar Key. This activity is occurring to the east and southeast of an upper level trough extending from the northeast Gulf through the Bay of Campeche. Mostly fair skies prevail elsewhere. At the surface, a weak stationary lingers over the northern coastal waters from SE Louisiana to near Apalachicola, Florida. Light to gentle winds south to southeast winds prevail across most of the basin, yielding slight seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds across the northern coastal waters of the Yucatan are producing seas 3 ft and locally higher. For the forecast, the weak stationary front over the NE Gulf will dissipate tonight. High pressure north of the dissipated front will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf through Tue. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf by Tue night, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the front stalls across eastern Texas Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer troughing extending from the NE Gulf of America southward across the Yucatan Peninsula and extreme western Caribbean is supporting scattered clusters of moderate isolated strong convection across the NW basin, N of 13N and W of 77W, and extending northeastward into the Bahamas. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has drifted southward to near 27N59W, and tightened the pressure gradient modestly in the past 24 hours. This is leading to moderate trades across most of the basin E of 77W, and fresh to locally strong winds S of 14N near the coast of NE Colombia. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in these strongest winds and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere E of 77W. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are also occurring across the Gulf of Honduras S of 18N, where seas are 4 to 5 ft and building. Mainly gentle yo moderate E to SE trades previal across the remainder of the basin, except light and variable SW portions. For the forecast, weak high pressure is slowly building across the central Atlantic, to the SE of a trough extending from Sw of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. This pattern is supporting a modest pressure gradient over the region tonight. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas across the basin by midweek as high pressure builds north of the area, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay. Ample low level moisture persists to the S and SE of a surface trough extending from SW of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring within 210 nm S and SE of this trough, where gentle to moderate S to SE winds prevail at the surface. Similar S to SE winds prevail to the N of the trough W of 75W. To the S of 22N gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail W of 60W, except fresh winds along the N coast of Hispaniola. Seas are generally 4 to 5 ft in northerly swell and 3 ft or less W of 74W. To the E, T.S. Fay is centered near 26.0N 45.9W, and is sandwiched in between two high centers at 28N57W and 31N44W. This pattern is leading to mainly gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds S of 22N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N25.5W, and is still producing moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist through morning along a trough reaching from the SW Bermuda adjacent waters to the northern Bahamas. The trough will dissipate through Tue, allowing high pressure to build over the western Atlantic. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.