Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
493 AXNT20 KNHC 282339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 26.6N 45.3W at 28/2100 UTC or 1150 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 10 ft are within 90 nm in the NW semicircle from the center. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. A general SW to WSW motion is anticipated over the next several days. Little change in strength is expected through Tue, with weakening expected thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 74W, south of 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no convection over the central basin associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 22W and 36W. Similar convection is depicted from 06N to 13N between 43W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Abundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is converging over the SE Gulf, under favorable upper level conditions is producing numerous moderate isolated strong convection S of 265N between 83W and 91W southward to 21N. A weak stationary front is depicted over the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate. For the forecast, the weak stationary front over the north- central Gulf will dissipate through early Tue. High pressure north of the front is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf by Tue night, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish late in the week as the front approaches the northwest Gulf Fri and Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep layer troughing is leading to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection W of 78W. Mainly gentle trades dominate due to a weak pressure gradient, but fresh E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Colombia. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a trough over the Bahamas and southeast Gulf has displaced the usual subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight seas across the basin. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds and building seas across the basin by mid week as the high pressure builds north of the area, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Fay. A surface trough extends from 31N67W through the central Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Numerous thunderstorms continue along this feature, expanding southward to 23N, W of 64W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E of it, moderate S to SW winds are noted to 61W. T.D. Fay is centered near 27.1N 44.6W, and is sandwiched in between to high centers at 26N39W and 29N53W. This pattern is leading to mainly gentle NE to E winds S of 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N25W, and is still producing moderate cyclonic winds and 5 to 7 ft seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms persist along a trough reaching from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and Florida Straits. The trough will dissipate through Tue, allowing high pressure to build over the western Atlantic. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.