Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
978 AXPZ20 KNHC 282118 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 25.0N 113.0W at 28/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 38 ft (11.5 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. Polo is expected to continue moving northeast with increase in forward speed. This track will take Polo's core over the Baja California Peninsula this evening very close to Puerto San Andresito. The hurricane will then briefly move over the Gulf of California overnight, finally making a second landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico on Tuesday morning. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane when it reaches Baja California Sur late today, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late tonight or early Tue. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact Baja California Sur along with southern and central portions of Sonora today into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Moisture from Polo will support heavy rainfall and flooding potential across the Southwest U.S. into the Southern High Plains late today into Tuesday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next day or so. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 14.2N 102.1W at 28/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are to 20 ft (6 M). Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Rachel is expected to move WNW to NW over the next few days, keeping the center well offshore the coast of SW Mexico. However, tropical storm conditions are likely along the coast of Mexico within the tropical storm warning area by Tue. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane on Tue. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days Please consult products from your local weather Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have changed little in organization this morning. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 12N92W, then resumes at 14N128W to 12N137W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N E of 92W and within 180 nm S of the trough between 128W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel. These systems will impact a large majority of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough seas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere, except slight in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 25.4N 112.7W this evening, 27.4N 111.0W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.9N 108.8W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 13.8N 101.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Rachel will move to 14.5N 102.6W this evening, 15.5N 104.4W Tue morning, and 16.7N 106.1W Tue evening. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 107.2W Wed morning, 18.7N 108.2W Wed evening, and 19.3N 108.8W Thu morning. Hurricane Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, a rather light gradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Polo, on Tropical Storm Rachel, and on a broad area low pressure in the far western waters that has potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. Away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds are over the western portion of the area, primarily west of a from about 30N120W to 19N132W to 15N140W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in mixed swell over these waters. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The remnant low of Odalys is near 23N123W with a pressure of 1005 mb. Strong winds still encompass within about 60 nm of the center, along with seas of up to 10 ft. The low is forecast to move southward tonight, then dissipate Tue. Winds will subside, but rough seas will prevail due to the influences of the nearby tropical systems. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 25.4N 112.7W this evening, 27.4N 111.0W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.9N 108.8W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 13.8N 101.2W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Rachel will move to 14.5N 102.6W this evening, 15.5N 104.4W Tue morning, and 16.7N 106.1W Tue evening. Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 107.2W Wed morning, 18.7N 108.2W Wed evening, and 19.3N 108.8W Thu morning. Hurricane Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Fri. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, Invest EP91, located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have changed little in organization this morning. Environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tomorrow. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.