Tropical Cyclone Discussion
330 WTPA42 PHFO 281453 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 32 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 Increasing westerly wind shear is beginning to affect the structure of Nolo this morning. Recent infrared satellite imagery indicate a slight increase in asymmetric convection, with a decrease in convection to the north and east of the well-defined and very warm eye, and a larger area of convection to the south and west. Recent subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were 6.5/127 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 121-133 kt. However, Nolo continues to have an annular structure, so the intensity has likely changed little since the previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 135 kt for this advisory. Nolo is moving toward the west-northwest, or 290/11 kt, along the southwest periphery of a mid-level ridge centered well north of the Hawaiian Islands. A turn toward the northwest then north is expected through the next 36-48 h as an intensifying upper-level low approaches the hurricane from the northwest. The track forecast becomes more complicated around midweek, as the progression and strength of the aforementioned upper-low will influence the motion of Nolo. A stronger low will likely be less progressive and pull Nolo farther north, while a weaker and more transient low will result in a faster turn toward the west. The latest NHC forecast follows the latter scenario and calls for Nolo to turn back toward the west-northwest then west around midweek, with this general motion continuing into this weekend. This is consistent with the previous forecast advisory, and is similar to the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. The major hurricane has likely peaked in strength while over very warm waters and beneath favorable upper-level winds. However, increasing wind shear due to the aforementioned upper-level low should support gradual weakening by tonight, followed by more rapid weakening beyond 24 h through the middle of the week. In 4-5 days, the models suggest a more favorable upper-level flow pattern, which could allow for some re-strengthening. The latest NHC forecast remains near the upper-end of the model intensity guidance, though has been lowered slightly at all forecast times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 162.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.3N 163.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 20.0N 163.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.7N 164.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 22.6N 164.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 22.8N 164.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 23.1N 165.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 23.7N 167.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 24.1N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH