Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
506 AXNT20 KNHC 281048 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 27.9N 44.1W at 28/0900 UTC or 1050 nm WSW of the Azores, moving SSW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 90 nm across the NW quadrant of the depression. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 24N to 29N between 42W and 46W. The T.D. is expected to move southwestward and generally maintain its intensity through Tue, before becoming a post tropical remnant low. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the Caribbean analyzed along 72W, south of 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. There is no convection over the central basin associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 20N16W to 20N24W to 07N36W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 08N50W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 17N between 43W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of a dissipated stationary front persist E to W across the central Gulf along about 25N. Abundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is converging south of 25N, under favorable upper level conditions is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of 24.5N between 85W and 93.5W southward to 20N and the NW Yucatan. At the surface, a weak 1014 mb high is centered over the eastern- central Gulf, while a lingering surface trough extends across the SW basin along about 95W. A weak cold front is slowly sinking into the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire basin, except moderate winds near the convection N of the Yucatan. Seas basin-wide are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin tonight and prevail through Tue night as high pressure builds over the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh winds and building seas over mostly the western Gulf starting midweek, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains and approaching the northwest Gulf by late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient persists across the basin, due to a weakening front N of the region, and is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and central basin as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these Atlantic waters and passages. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient, due to the presence of a weakening frontal boundary N of the region, will support gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through tonight. Expect gentle to moderate E to SE winds thereafter through midweek as the high pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, the pattern will allow moderate to fresh winds and building seas by Thu, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Fay. A weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW Atlantic waters from 31N68W and meanders southwestward into the central Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue about this feature, from 23.5N to 31N between 61W and 76W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E of it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted to 64W. T.D. Fay is centered near 28.5N 43.8W, and is sandwiched in between to high centers at 31N49W and 28N36W. This pattern is leading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 21N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N24W, and is still producing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate winds and seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist along a trough reaching from 29N68W to the central Bahamas offshore waters. A dissipating stationary front W of the trough, and reaching from 31N68W to Andros Island will dissipate toight. Moderate SW winds and moderate seas ahead of the front will continue to diminish today. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 3-5 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.