Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
862 WTPZ32 KNHC 280544 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 1100 PM MST Sun Sep 27 2026 ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA MONDAY AND TUESDAY... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE MONDAY MORNING IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 114.0W ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch to a Hurricane Warning along the coast of Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Guaymas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe * East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo * East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo. * East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 18 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 114.0 West. Polo is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion should continue for the next several hours followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday evening and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Polo is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico late Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur by late Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the southern portion of the warning area Monday morning. These conditions are expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico late Monday night through early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin Monday night. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.