Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
767 AXNT20 KNHC 280459 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 28.5N 43.8W at 28/0300 UTC or 1015 nm W-SW of the Azores, moving S at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas to 8 ft are within 120 nm across the SW semicircle of the depression. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 26.5N to 28,5N between 43.5W and 45W. The T.D. is expected to move southwestward and generally maintain its intensity through Tue morning, before becoming a post tropical remnant low. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 71W, south of 16N into western Colombia, moving west at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring on either side of the wave, from 14N to 15.5N between 68W and 75W, scattered moderate convection accompanies the wave across western Colombia S of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near 20.5N16.5W extending to 1011 mb low pressure near 21N24W then southwestward to 07.5N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N36W to 08N46W to 11.5N59W to 11N62W. Scattered moderate convection is near Africa from 06.5N to 13.5N E of 20W, from 05N to 11.5N between 26W and 36W, from 06N to 11N between 46W and 53W, and from 13N to 15N between 55W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of a dissipated stationary front persist E to W across the central Gulf along about 25N. Abundant low level moisture embedded in southeasterly flow from the Yucatan is converging south of 25N, under favorable upper level conditions is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of 24.5N between 85W and 93.5W southward to 20N and the NW Yucatan. At the surface, a weak 1013 mb high is centered just off the mouth of the Mississippi River, while a lingering surface trough extends across the SW basin along about 95W. A weak cold front is slowly sinking into the coastal waters from Mobile Bay to near Mexico Beach, Florida. Light to gentle winds prevail across the entire basin, except moderate winds near the convection N of the Yucatan. Buoy observations across the basin suggest that seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas will become gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin through the early part of the week, as high pressure builds over the southeast U.S. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh SE winds and building seas over the western Gulf starting midweek, as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Southern Plains, and approaching the northwest Gulf by late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient persists across the basin, due to the passage of a cold front N of the region, and is translating to gentle to moderate trades over the eastern and central basin as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across east and central portions and 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and less than 3 ft elsewhere. A middle level trough along about 80W and N of 16N is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 15.5N and W of the tropical wave along 71W. A low level easterly wave moving across the Lesser Antilles tonight is interacting with an upper low across the Atlantic to the NE of the Leeward Islands to produce scattered moderate convection and moderate easterly winds from 13N to 17N between 56W and the islands. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these Atlantic waters and passages. For the forecast, the weak pattern across the region is expected to persist, and will support gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. Expect gentle to moderate E to SE winds thereafter through midweek as the high pressure build north of the area. Looking ahead, high pressure is expected to move into the western Atlantic Wed night, and will lead to moderate to fresh trade winds and building seas by Thu, with rough seas possible in the Yucatan Channel and far NW Caribbean Thu night through Fri under fresh SE winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Fay. The weakening frontal trough remains stationary across the NW Atlantic waters from 31N68W and meanders southwestward into the NW Bahamas. to the S of this boundary, an elongated low level trough extends from 30N66W to 27N72W the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue about this feature, from 23.5N to 31N between 61W and 76W. Light to gentle winds are found to the NW of the trough. To the E of it, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted in recent scatterometer data N of 24N and E of the trough to 64W. Long period northerly swell generated by the recent strong low pressure across the NW Atlantic continues to move through the regional waters W of 55W. The swell is subsiding from recent days, but remains 6 to 8 ft N of 23.5N between 61W and 73W, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere W of 55W. T.D. Fay is centered near 28.5N 43.8W, and is sandwiched in between to high centers at 31N49W and 28N36W. This pattern is leading to gentle to moderate NE to E winds S of 21N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Further east, the 1011 mb remnants of Gonzalo are near 21N 24W, and is still producing moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas to the N and W of the center. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate winds and seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist tonight along a trough reaching from 30N66W to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas in N swell along the east side of the trough are slowly diminishing. This will leave gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the region starting tonight. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the area supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas south of 25N by midweek.