Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
877 AXPZ20 KNHC 272121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 114.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft (12 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Polo is expected to continue moving northward tonight, then turn NE Mon. On the forecast track, Polo will approach the west coast of Baja California Sur Mon, move across the Peninsula Mon night, then approach NW mainland Mexico by early Tue. Polo is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or two, but Polo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it reaches Baja California Sur Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts in excess of 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 12.6N 99.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft (3.5 M). Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. A continued WNW motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well S of the coast of southern Mexico. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become hurricane Tue. Odalys has become less organized today and no longer has tropical characteristics. Therefore, Odalys is now a post-tropical cyclone. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys is centered near 22.8N 123.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. With winds of 35 to 40 kt expected into tonight, a Gale Warning has now been issued within 90 nm of the center of Odalys. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft (6.0 M), also continue near Odalys, and these hazardous seas will only slowly subside tonight. Scattered moderate convection persists within about 60 nm of the center, and this activity should dissipate this evening. A slow NE motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn S or SSW Mon. Odalys is expected to dissipate by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys, and Rachel. A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 12N96W. It resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 12N138W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 22.7N 113.9W this evening, 24.5N 113.4W Mon morning, and 26.3N 112.2W Mon evening. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 110.0W Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.5N 107.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will be near 13.0N 99.2W this evening, then move to 13.7N 100.5W Mon morning. Rachel will reach 14.6N 102.4W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.2W Tue morning, then been near 16.5N 106.0W Tue evening. Hurricane Rachel will be at 17.3N 107.4W Wed morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Thu. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will move to 23.0N 123.2W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 22.8N 122.8W Mon morning. The remnant low of Odalys will be near 21.9N 122.6W Mon evening, 20.6N 122.6W Tue morning, and 19.6N 122.9W Tue evening, The remnants of Odalys will be at 19.0N 123.6W Wed morning, then dissipate early Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh SE to S winds over the western portions of the Guatemalan offshore waters will continue to diminish. West to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel, Post- Tropical Cyclone Odalys, and on low pressure in the far western waters that has potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas N of 09N, with moderate seas to the south. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 22.7N 113.9W this evening, 24.5N 113.4W Mon morning, and 26.3N 112.2W Mon evening. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 110.0W Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.5N 107.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will be near 13.0N 99.2W this evening, then move to 13.7N 100.5W Mon morning. Rachel will reach 14.6N 102.4W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.2W Tue morning, then been near 16.5N 106.0W Tue evening. Hurricane Rachel will be at 17.3N 107.4W Wed morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Thu. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will move to 23.0N 123.2W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 22.8N 122.8W Mon morning. The remnant low of Odalys will be near 21.9N 122.6W Mon evening, 20.6N 122.6W Tue morning, and 19.6N 122.9W Tue evening, The remnants of Odalys will be at 19.0N 123.6W Wed morning, then dissipate early Thu. A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week.