Tropical Cyclone Discussion

694
WTPA42 PHFO 272034
TCDCP2
 
Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number  29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP152026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026

The inner core of Nolo has continued to show signs of improvement, 
as the eye has become better defined over the last several hours. 
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight level winds 
around 106 kt, which supports surface winds around 95 kt. In 
addition, the aircraft found that the pressure has been decreasing 
over the course the flight. A dropsonde into the northern eyewall 
observed a 500 m layer average of 106 kt. Furthermore, the objective 
intensity estimates are in the range of 87-119 kt. Based on the 
current data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt for 
this advisory.
 
The cyclone is moving mainly westward or 280/10 kt. Nolo is expected 
to continue to move on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge 
for the next 24 h or so. Afterwards, the hurricane will turn 
northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low. 
Near the end of the forecast period, Nolo should then turn toward 
the west again, as Nolo moves around the northern side of the low. 
The official track forecast is similar to the previous one just some 
minor adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids.
 
Nolo is expected to remain in a favorable environment with low wind 
shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow for 
continued intensification for the next 24 hours. After 36-48 h, 
gradual weakening is expected as the SHIPS model outputs indicate 
that wind shear will increase in the 36-96 h period due to the 
interaction with the upper-level low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear 
may relax again and this could allow some restrengthening. The NHC 
intensity forecast is still on the high end of the guidance 
envelope, however it is in line with the HCCA forecast aid in the 
short term. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Strong and gusty winds are expected across the main Hawaiian 
Islands through today.

2. Large and damaging waves with high surf are likely along portions 
of the east-ward facing beaches of the main Hawaiian Islands through 
today. Southward facing beaches are likely to see increased swell 
and surf during the next few days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/2100Z 16.2N 159.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 16.5N 160.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 17.6N 162.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 19.3N 163.3W  115 KT 130 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 21.0N 163.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 22.1N 163.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 22.5N 164.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 22.8N 166.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 23.2N 168.5W   70 KT  80 MPH