Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
146 WTPZ32 KNHC 271456 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026 ...POLO A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD... ...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 113.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe * East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo * East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. * East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to Bahia San Juan Bautista * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 113.9 West. Polo is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or two, but Polo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it reaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST.