Tropical Cyclone Discussion
972 WTPZ41 KNHC 271445 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 27 2026 A fortuitous 1038 UTC NOAA-20 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Lunar calibration image indicated that Odalys is a bit farther north than noted earlier. The vertically shallow tropical cyclone is quickly becoming devoid of deep convection with a small patch located well to the northeast of the exposed surface center. Based on a blend of the UW-CIMSS objective techniques and the subjective intensity estimate from TAFB, the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. Odalys should continue to spin down quickly while moving within an increasingly inhibiting surrounding atmospheric environment and over progressively cooler oceanic temperatures. Subsequently, Odalys is forecast to lose its deep convective organization convection later tonight, and become a post-tropical cyclone. On Monday, the majority of the skilled guidance indicates that Odalys should degenerate to a remnant low, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and agrees with the various consensus aids. Odalys' initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 005/5 kt. The forecast philosophy remains unchanged, and the weakening cyclone should continue to move generally northward in the short term. On Monday, a severely sheared, vertically tilted Odalys is expected to turn east-southeastward and sharply south-southeastward while being steered by the low-level flow produced by a subtropical high situated to the north of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and lies between the HFIP HCCA and GDMI guidance. Odalys' wind radii have been adjusted based on 0455 UTC METOP-C and a 0433 UTC METOP-B scatterometer passes. Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.6N 123.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 23.0N 123.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 28/1200Z 22.8N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 21.9N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.6N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z 19.6N 122.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED