Tropical Cyclone Discussion

709
WTNT41 KNHC 271439
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 27 2026
 
This morning's GOES-19 Proxy-VIS satellite presentation indicates 
that Fay's cloud pattern has changed little since yesterday, and 
the TAFB subjective satellite intensity estimate supports 30 kt for 
this advisory.
 
Modest northerly shear continues to impinge on the north side of
the cyclone, displacing the small pulsating deep bursts of 
convection just to the south of the surface center.  The GFS/ECMWF 
statistical SHIPS intensity guidance indicates little change in the 
shear pattern and magnitude and the thermodynamic environment 
through mid-week.  Therefore, the NHC forecast shows Fay 
maintaining depression strength during the next few days.  There is 
growing confidence due to deterministic and AI-single model 
agreement indicating that Fay will finally lose what little 
organized convection it has held onto, and eventually open up into 
a trough toward the end of the week.  The official intensity 
forecast follows this scenario and is based on the aforementioned 
SHIPS and the HFIP HCCA guidance.
 
Fay's initial motion is estimated to be south-southeastward, or 
160/3 kt.  Fay is forecast to move southwestward to 
west-southwestward around the southeastern peripheral low-level 
flow of a subtropical high located midway between Bermuda and the 
cyclone.  A few of the deterministic models indicate slight 
strengthening of the aforementioned ridge early in the period.  
Therefore, a slight increase in forward speed is indicated in the 
NHC forecast beyond Tuesday, and this agrees with the better 
performing consensus models.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 29.3N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 28.8N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 27.6N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  29/1200Z 25.3N  45.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  30/0000Z 24.6N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  30/1200Z 24.2N  48.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED