Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

753
WTPZ32 KNHC 271143
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172026
500 AM MST Sun Sep 27 2026

...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AS POWERFUL POLO APPROACHES...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 113.7W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe
* East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Santa Rosalia
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* Mainland Mexico from Huatabampito to Bahia Kino
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to
Punta Eugenia.
* East coast of Baja California Sur, north of Santa Rosalia to
Bahia San Juan Bautista
* East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San
Evaristo.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued  
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of 
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside 
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life 
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder
of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located 
near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 113.7 West. Polo is moving 
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the 
north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the 
northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to 
approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move 
across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern 
mainland Mexico by early Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next 
few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it 
approaches Baja California Sur on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC.
 
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area
along the west coast of Baja California Sur by Monday afternoon,
with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of
the warning area by tonight into early Monday. These conditions
are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday and then
eastward across Baja California Sur by Monday evening. Hurricane
conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area in mainland
northwestern Mexico on Tuesday.
 
RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8
inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding
and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in
areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.