Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
286 AXPZ20 KNHC 271049 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Corrected Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys's overall convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by Mon. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across central Panama and to 08N82W to 06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 11N140W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 94W-97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer data. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is near 12.2N 99.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Eighteen-E will move to near 12.7N 99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N 100.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W late Mon night, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue night Wed morning. Eighteen-E will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The forecast waters will be impacted by very hazardous conditions, for the most part, during the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to pull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the week allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. The Special Features broad area of low pressure may evolve into a tropical cyclone that moves east-norheastward across the western part of the area during the upcoming week. If this scenario transpires, then winds and seas will be impacted significantly across that portion of the area. Please keep up with the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks for updates on formation probabilities of this next possible system.