Tropical Cyclone Discussion
935 WTPA42 PHFO 270844 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 27 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 Nolo appears to be gradually strengthening since the last aircraft mission several hours ago. The eye is becoming a little better defined and convection has been increasing over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation. The hurricane has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow over all quadrants. Using a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and the various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the advisory intensity is increased to 85 kt. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Nolo later this morning to check on the intensity of the system. The hurricane continues moving mainly westward or just slightly south of westward, at around 260/8 kt. Nolo should move mainly westward on the southern side of a mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the system is likely to turn northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low near 165W/170W. Later in the forecast period, a turn back toward the west is expected as Nolo rotates around the northern portion of the low. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one except slightly slower in the 4-5 day time frame. This is close to the latest model consensus. Nolo should remain in an environment of low vertical wind shear for the next day or two. This, along with a sufficiently warm ocean, should result in the system strengthening into a major hurricane within the next 36 hours. Later in the forecast period, the SHIPS model output shows a significant increase in shear, so weakening is likely from 48 to 96 hours. Around the end of the period, the shear may relax and potentially allow from some restrengthening. The official forecast is on the high end of the model guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through the weekend, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Nolo. 2. Rain bands will continue through tonight across the Big Island and Maui, though the showers are expected to gradually diminish in intensity and frequency through Sunday. Additional areas of flooding and mudslides will be possible, especially in areas of steep terrain across the eastern and southern portions of the Big Island and eastern Maui. 3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big Island's coastline through the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 16.5N 157.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 16.5N 158.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 17.0N 160.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 18.1N 162.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.8N 163.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 21.5N 163.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 22.5N 164.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 22.8N 165.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 22.8N 168.1W 65 KT 75 MPH