Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
018 AXPZ20 KNHC 270348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 27/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm in the N semicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. Polo will maintain its current motion through tonight. A northward turn is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Mon. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0300 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Odalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts that the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of the deeper convection displaced north of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the N semicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle. A general northward to north- northeastward motion is expected to continue through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by Mon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Gale Warning (Invest EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds associated with this low later Sun into Mon offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. In addition, this system is likely to bring very heavy rainfall over portions of Guatemala and Southern Mexico through tonight, which may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides.Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica, to 10N85W to low pres, Invest EP90, to 13.5N105W. It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N118W to 10N130W to low pressure near 12N140W 1006 mb and beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 83W-96W, and also from 04N to 11N between 131W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which has prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west- northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low pressure, Invest EP90, organizes southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the area, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days.