Tropical Cyclone Discussion

695
WTPZ41 KNHC 270254
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026
 
Odalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts that
the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an
irregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of the
deeper convection displaced north of the center. This is clear
evidence of strong vertical wind shear undercutting the outflow
layer. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB came in at
T4.5/77 kt, but objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue
to fall, ranging from 63–66 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the
initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt, which may still be generous.
 
Initial motion is estimated due north at 360/6 kt. Little change has
been made to the track reasoning. Odalys is expected to continue
northward as a deep-layer trough steers the vertically coherent
cyclone. Once the system decouples, motion should turn abruptly
south-southeastward in 24 to 36 h under the steering influence of a
low-level ridge positioned to the northwest. The updated NHC track
forecast closely tracks the previous advisory, aligned with the HCCA
and GDMI ensemble consensus aids.
 
Over the next few days, Odalys will encounter an increasingly
hostile environment, as the strong vertical wind shear is unlikely
to abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by an abundance
of dry air while traversing through significantly cooler sea
surface temperatures. This will ultimately result in Odalys rapidly
weakening throughout the forecast period, becoming a post-tropical
cyclone in about 36 h, if not sooner, as indicated by the latest
simulated satellite forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF runs.
 
Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be
transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend
and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy
rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued
by the Weather Prediction Center for more information.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0300Z 21.1N 123.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 21.9N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 22.3N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 22.1N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  29/0000Z 21.2N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/1200Z 20.1N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  30/0000Z 19.2N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED