Tropical Cyclone Discussion
600 WTPZ42 KNHC 270245 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 800 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Polo during the last few hours and found that although it has weakened, the system remains a major hurricane. The highest flight-level winds measured by the plane on its last pass through Polo were 114 kt, while the minimum pressure measured by a dropsonde was 949 mb. Based on these data, the intensity of Polo is set at 105 kt. The NOAA aircraft also confirmed that Polo's inner core has expanded, and reported that the eyewall of the hurricane is open on the north side of the circulation. Polo is still heading northwestward, moving around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. Polo will turn northward tomorrow, and then northeastward on Monday as it continues to move around the ridge and becomes increasingly affected by a mid- to upper-level trough moving in from the northwest. The largest source of uncertainty in the forecast continues to be the forward speed of Polo as it makes its expected northeastward turn between the aforementioned synoptic features. The model spread remains higher than unusual between 48 and 72 h, and confidence in this portion of the forecast is low. The NHC forecast is still generally close to GDM and HCCA, which are on the faster end of the guidance, and only minor adjustments were made to the official forecast with this advisory. Continued steady weakening is expected during the next day or two given Polo's degraded structure and the expectation that it will continue to encounter moderate vertical wind shear and move into a drier surrounding environment. However, Polo is still expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Rapid weakening is likely once the hurricane makes landfall, and Polo will likely dissipate over mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. Polo is expected to become a remnant low and then dissipate before it reaches the southern U.S., but distant moisture associated with it and Odalys will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Key Messages: 1. Polo is forecast to approach the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Monday as a hurricane, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for that region. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the coast as soon as Sunday night or early Monday, making further preparations difficult. These conditions will likely spread across Baja California through Monday. A storm surge is likely, especially in areas of onshore winds. 2. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo may begin to impact Baja California Sur Sunday night into Tuesday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 3. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely along portions of the northwest coast of Mexico and Baja California for the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 20.7N 113.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.4N 114.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 24.2N 113.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 25.8N 112.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 29/1200Z 27.6N 110.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 29.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED