Tropical Cyclone Discussion

395
WTNT41 KNHC 262038
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Sat Sep 26 2026
 
The convection around Fay has been mostly stripped away by the wind
shear and the dry air in the environment. The latest TAFB Dvorak
fix was T2.0/30 kt and the objective intensity estimate is in the
range of 29-39 kt. Given that there has been little change in the 
intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt 
for this advisory.
 
The cyclone is now slowly moving towards the south, at 180/2 kt. Fay 
is expected to continue to move southward into the southern flank of 
the subtropical Atlantic high. By early next week, the depression 
should turn westward due to the large-scale easterly flow, but there 
is still some uncertainty in the timing of this turn. The current 
NHC forecast track is similar to the previous one with some small 
adjustments based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
 
The intensity forecast continues to have a high level of 
uncertainty as Fay is still over favorably warm sea-surface 
temperatures. However, vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air 
continue to hinder the depression and preventing a more organized 
structure from developing. Both the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS 
statistical analysis have mid-level relative humidity less than 40 
percent for the next several days. Convection is likely to continue 
to pulse up and down, but the current NHC intensity forecast 
follows the trend of the previous one showing little change in 
strength with only minor changes made. This forecast continues to 
maintain Fay as a tropical depression until it become post-tropical 
and dissipates by the middle of next week. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/2100Z 29.8N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 29.6N  43.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 28.9N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 27.8N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 26.5N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  29/0600Z 25.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 24.1N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.4N  51.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED