Tropical Cyclone Discussion
323 WTPZ41 KNHC 262034 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Odalys continues to quickly weaken this afternoon. On satellite the hurricane's structure has evolved into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast with evidence of south-southwesterly shear undercutting the outflow layer, which is now estimated above 35 kt from the latest UW-CIMSS analysis. A WSFM microwave image available after the prior advisory also no longer shows an eyewall on the 89 GHz channel as the storm becomes increasingly tilted downshear with height. The 18 UTC TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is still a CI 5.0/90 kt, but the objective intensity estimates continue to fall, ranging from 63-78 kt. A blend of the data yields an intensity of 80 kt for this advisory. The shear over the next few days is not expected to abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by abundant dry air as it also moves towards cooler sea-surface temperatures. Thus, continued rapid weakening is forecasted, and the latest forecast still indicates Odalys becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 48 h. However, this could occur even sooner than forecast, as indicated by the latest simulated satellite forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF runs. The hurricane is now moving a little east of due north, estimated at 5 degrees at 6 kt. Not much has changed with the track reasoning, with Odalys continuing to move north-northeast while a deep-layer trough has the strongest influence on its motion as it remains vertically coherent. When the cyclone decouples vertically, this motion should abruptly shift to the south-southeast in 24-48 h as the now shallow cyclone will be mainly steered by a low-level ridge located to its northwest. The latest NHC track forecast is very close to the prior one, continuing to favor a blend of the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI) guidance. Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.5N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 21.3N 123.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 22.3N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 21.8N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z 20.7N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/1800Z 19.5N 121.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/1800Z 18.2N 122.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED