Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
312 WTPZ32 KNHC 262033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Sat Sep 26 2026 ...POLO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 112.5W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula later today. Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo. Watches may be required for that area tonight or early Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 112.5 West. Polo is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northward motion is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, however Polo is expected to be a strong hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will also spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.