Tropical Cyclone Discussion

462
WTNT42 KNHC 261441
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072026
200 PM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026
 
Gonzalo remains a highly sheared tropical storm. Even though the 
low-level circulation on GOES-19 visible images appears to be 
somewhat less elongated than overnight, convection continues to be 
quite displaced to the northeast due to a brutal 45 kt of 
southwesterly vertical wind shear. A Metop-C ASCAT pass showed a 
peak wind of 31 kt to the north of the circulation this morning, but 
missed the center and the deeper convection to the northeast where 
the highest winds were previously observed. The initial intensity is 
thus only lowered to 35 kt this advisory, assuming some stronger 
winds still exist in the convection to the northeast.

The low-level circulation is moving generally north-northwestward 
at 345 degrees at 9 kt. This general motion should continue today, 
followed by a slow down and turn to the west-northwest as the 
increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by a narrow 
low-level ridge to its north. The latest NHC track forecast has been 
shifted slightly further north, following the latest trends in the 
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind 
ensemble mean (GDMI) aids. Intensity-wise, Gonzalo likely does not 
have much time left as a tropical cyclone, with convection becoming 
increasingly displaced from the center as shear over the system 
remains above 40 kt. Like the previous forecast, weakening is 
anticipated, and Gonzalo is forecast to become a remnant low in the 
next 12 h as the convection is completely stripped away. Total 
dissipation is likely to occur early next week as the remnant low 
drifts over the subtropical Eastern Atlantic basin.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/1500Z 18.8N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/0000Z 19.8N  23.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1200Z 20.6N  23.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0000Z 21.2N  23.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1200Z 21.5N  24.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0000Z 21.7N  24.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  29/1200Z 21.8N  25.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED