Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
605 WTPZ32 KNHC 261153 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 23A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 500 AM MST Sat Sep 26 2026 ...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM MST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 111.5W ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Watches will likely be required for the east coast of the Baja California Peninsula later today. Interests in portions of northwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM MST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 111.5 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected late today and toward the north is forecast on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is expected to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin tonight, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A weather station on Socorro Island recently reported a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will also spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST.