Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
090 AXNT20 KNHC 261051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Former Tropical Storm Fay has weakened to Tropical Depression Fay, which is centered near 29.7N 43.7W at 26/0900 UTC or 970 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WSW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N to 30N between 42W and 45W. Little change in strength is forecast over the next several days. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 17.6N 23.0W at 26/0900 UTC or 50 nm N of Sal Cabo Verde, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 17 ft in the NE quadrant. Gonzalo is a sheared storm with numerous moderate isolated strong convection extending from 17N to 28N between 17W and 22W. On the forecast track, the center will continue to move away from northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today. Weakening is anticipated, and Gonzalo could become a remnant low or dissipate within the next 24 hours. Swells generated by Gonzalo are expected to affect portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through today before diminishing Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N68W through the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. Deepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, producing seas of 8 to 12 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of 70W. Rough seas will follow the front through later this morning, before starting to subside through Sun morning. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep- layer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward across southern Mexico, combined with abundant low-level moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of Chiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region will create the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible for the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 62W, from 06N to 18N, moving west near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low center across the NE Caribbean. Scattered showers are behind the wave axis in the SE Caribbean. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 80W, S of 16N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave over the Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshores. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 16N24W to 10N30W to 10N52W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to 10.5N60W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 48W and 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from W Cuba to the central Gulf near 23N90W then becomes stationary and continues NW to the central Texas coast in the area of Victoria. Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are found over the SW Gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are basin-wide. For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate by tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail through tonight then diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico expected today. A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across much of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across across most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. For the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the region will support moderate to fresh trades over the south- central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, Tropical Depression Fay and on significant swell propagating southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to 68W. A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast, and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N68W to the north-central Bahamas to NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring ahead of the front to 63W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 22N and ahead of the front to 62W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft in N swell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh N to N-NE winds prevail. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, as surface trough supported by a mid-level low is inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N between 54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE Atlantic drapes across Tropical Depression Fay. The weak pressure gradient to the south continues to yield a belt of moderate trades from 10N to 20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the monsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through this morning, before starting to decrease.