Tropical Cyclone Discussion
429 WTPZ41 KNHC 260839 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Odalys continues to show signs of weakening. Satellite imagery shows the hurricane's eye has been obscured by a central dense overcast (CDO), though microwave imagery still indicates a well-defined low-level circulation center. A recent 0515 UTC Metop-C scatterometer pass revealed an asymmetric wind field. The latest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 5.5/102 kt, but the final-T number was 5.0/90 kt. This generally aligns with most UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates, which range from 98 to 106 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/4 kt, as the system continues to be steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The hurricane is forecast to continue on this trajectory over the next day or so as the aforementioned trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific. By early next week, Odalys is anticipated to abruptly turn to the east and southeast as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level flow. The updated track forecast closely aligns with the reliable HCCA consensus aid, nudging slightly westward prior to the sharp easterly turn, and remains virtually unchanged from the previous advisory thereafter. The latest SHIPS guidance depicts Odalys slowly moving into a more unfavorable environment, characterized by moderate to strong vertical wind shear, mid-level dry air, and cooler sea surface temperatures. These conditions will likely inhibit deep convection, making it difficult for Odalys to remain organized later this weekend. Consequently, the latest NHC forecast shows Odalys degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 60 h, a trend supported by simulated satellite imagery from both the GFS and ECMWF. Distant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.1N 123.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.9N 123.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 21.8N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 22.1N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 21.6N 122.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0600Z 18.5N 120.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 16.4N 118.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW