Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
523 WTPZ32 KNHC 260553 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 1100 PM MST Fri Sep 25 2026 ...POLO REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON MONDAY AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM MST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 110.5W ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Eugenia to Santa Fe A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM MST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 110.5 West. Polo is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Saturday and north on Sunday. By Monday, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and Saturday. Slow weakening is expected after that, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Monday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible in the southern portion of the watch area by Sunday night into early Monday. These conditions are expected to spread northward during the day on Monday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge could produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will also spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.