Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
280 AXNT20 KNHC 260500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.9N 43.4W at 26/0300 UTC or about 1755 KM or 950 NM W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 29N to 30.5N between 42W and 43.5W. A gradual turn toward the S-SW is expected over the next few days. Fay is expected to maintain it current strength overnight then a slow weakening trend will begin through the weekend, before the surface circulation opens up into a trough by Tue. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.9N 22.5W at 26/0300 UTC or about 50 KM or 30 nm E-NE of Sal, Cabo Verde, moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft within 210 nm NE of center. Numerous strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 17W and 22W. A general northward motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, with a slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center will past across the northeastern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and move north of the islands on Sat. Gradual weakening is expected tonight through Sat as southerly vertical wind shear continues to impact the storm through the weekend. Gonzalo is expected to lose convection and become post tropical by Sat night. Swells generated by the storm are expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from near 31N71W through the north-central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. Deepening low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. has produce gale to storm force N to NE winds pointing toward Florida and the SE U.S. coast, and generating large swell. This swell is propagating into the area behind the cold front, producing seas of 8 to 13 ft generally to the N of 26W and W of 70W. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft are occurring in the Gulfstream offshore of northern Florida, N of 29N. Buoy 41010 at 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 10 ft seas as of 0300 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to subside through Sun morning. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep- layer trough extending from the Yucatan Channel southwestward across southern Mexico, combined with abundant low- level moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the Central America from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and portions of Chiapas and Campeche, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in this region will create the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides through Sat, before the upper level system responsible for the rainfall shifts into the eastern Pacific. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, from 06N to 17N, moving west near 15 kt. The wave is being sheared by an upper-level low center across the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10.5N to 19.5N between 58W and 65W. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 79W, S of 15N, extending across Panama, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave, S of 13.5N W of 81.5W and inland across Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from just S-SW of Gonzalo near 15N23W to 11N27W to 08.5N37W. The ITCZ extends from 08N39W to 11.5N55W to 10.5N60W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 20W and 29W, from 05N to 07.5N between 32W and 44W. and from 10N to 13N between 47.5W and 56W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front has continued to move southward across the eastern Gulf and Florida, and now extends from the NW coast of Cuba near La Habana to 24N90W, then becomes stationary and continues NW to the central Texas coast in the area of Victoria. Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are found within 120 nm S of the front between western Cuba and 96W. Moderate N-NE to E-NE winds are N of this boundary E of 90W, while moderate E winds are also within 75 nm N of the front between 90W and 96W. Gentle E to NE winds are occurring to the south of the front. Seas N of the front are generally 3 to 5 ft, and 2 to 3 ft to the south. For the forecast, the weak cold front will begin to stall across eastern portions of the Gulf tonight and then dissipate into Sat. Moderate to locally NE to E fresh winds will follow the front tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week as weak high pressure settle across the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico expected tonight into Sat. A weaker than usual pressure gradient across the nearby Atlantic and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. A middle to upper-level low center is over the NE Caribbean and promoting sinking air and stable conditions across much of central portions. Scattered moderate convection across across most of the Gulf of Honduras to 19N. and across the waters between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. For the forecast, the continued weak pressure gradient across the region will support moderate to fresh trades over the south- central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. Active showers and thunderstorms over NW portions tonight will gradually shift eastward to the central Caribbean through Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating southward into waters offshore Florida and NE of the Bahamas to 68W. A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the middle Atlantic coast, and a cold front across the western Atlantic waters from 31N71W to the north-central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring SE of the front to the Greater Antilles W of 70W and E of the front to 66.5W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring N of 26N and ahead of the front to 64W, where seas are 5 to 9 ft in N swell. Behind the front, moderate to locally fresh N to N-NE winds prevail with recent satellite scatterometer data showing strongest winds along most of the Florida coastal waters. Seas are 8 to 13 ft in mostly N to NE swell. To the east, as surface trough that extends from 28N58W to 23N61W is supported by a mid level low and is inducing numerous moderate convection from 23N to 28N between 54W and 60W. E of this area, high pressure across the NE Atlantic drapes across Tropical Storm Fay. The weak pressure gradient to the south continues to yield a belt of moderate trades from 10N to 20N W of 40W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail N of the monsoon trough to 24N between 25W and 40W, where seas are 5 to 89 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will drift SE and reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas in large N to NE swell will follow the front through Sat morning, before subsiding through Sun morning.