Tropical Cyclone Discussion
324 WTPZ41 KNHC 260253 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Odalys remains a powerful major hurricane, though satellite imagery is beginning to show signs of weakening. The eye of Odalys remains ragged, embedded within deep convection with cloud top temperatures around -70 to -75 C. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity CI number from TAFB was 6.0/115 kt but the final-T number was 5.5/102 kt. This generally aligns with most UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates, which range from 98 to 106 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/4 kt, continues to be steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. The hurricane is forecast to continue on this trajectory over the next day or so as the aforementioned trough amplifies over the eastern Pacific. By early next week, Odalys is anticipated to abruptly turn to the east and southeast as the increasingly shallow circulation becomes steered by the low-level flow. The latest track guidance closely follows the reliable HCCA aid, pulls the track slightly farther west ahead of the sharp, easterly turn, and mirrors the previous advisory for the remainder of the forecast period. Over the weekend, Odalys is expected to encounter a progressively hostile environment, marked by moderate to strong vertical wind shear and an increase in mid-level dry air. These conditions will likely make it difficult for Odalys to sustain organized convection later this weekend, and the updated forecast shows Odalys as a post-tropical cyclone at 60 h based on the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery. Distant moisture from Hurricane Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 18.8N 123.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 20.8N 123.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 22.4N 122.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 22.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 29/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 19.3N 119.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW