Tropical Cyclone Discussion
939 WTNT42 KNHC 260233 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gonzalo Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072026 200 AM CVT Sat Sep 26 2026 ASCAT-C data valid near 2230 UTC indicated that Gonzalo's circulation has become poorly defined. At that time, the center of Gonzalo was severely stretched by about 100 miles from southwest to northeast. Although the ASCAT did not fully sample the area where convection associated with Gonzalo is strongest, it did indicate that the winds have generally decreased since yesterday. Based on these data and the latest TAFB Dvorak fix, the intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. It is worth noting that if current trends continue and the center does not re-form under the convection, Gonzalo could dissipate later this morning. Gonzalo still appears to be moving northward, and should continue on this track for the next day or so, though the track could jump to the northeast temporarily if the center re-forms nearer the deep convection. Regardless, models indicate that the remaining convection should become disorganized within the next 24 h, which would cause the cyclone to become post-tropical. Given the environment that Gonzalo is moving into, which will consist of increasing shear and cool SSTs, this seems likely. Once it becomes a shallow cyclone, the remnants of Gonzalo are expected to meander slowly to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands for several days before dissipating near the middle of next week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.9N 22.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 18.4N 22.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 19.8N 23.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z 20.6N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 21.1N 23.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1200Z 21.5N 23.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z 21.8N 24.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 30/0000Z 22.0N 24.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED