Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
338 AXNT20 KNHC 252326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 43.0W at 25/2100 UTC or 930 nm WSW of the Azores, moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 17 ft are occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 29N to 31N between 40W and 44W. A gradual turn toward the SW is expected over the next few days. Slow weakening is expected through the weekend. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 16.2N 22.7W at 25/2100 UTC or 30 nm SSE of Sal Cabo Verde, moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted from 12N to 21N between 17W and 22W. A NNW to N motion is expected to continue, with a slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center will past near the northeastern portion of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and move north of the islands Sat. Little change in strength is expected tonight, with weakening expected to begin Sat and continue through the weekend. Swells generated by the storm are expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from 31N70W into the central Bahamas and to the NW coast of Cuba. Swell generated by gales N of the region is propagating into the area N of the cold front, causing seas of 8 to 13 ft. The highest seas of 12 to 13 ft are along and N of 30N, W of 73W, and in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream within 60 NM of the coast of Florida N of 28N. Buoy 41010 at 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 11 ft seas as of 1520 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to decrease. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A deep- layer trough over northern Central America, combined with abundant low- level moisture, is leading to heavy rainfall across portions of the region, particularly over Guatemala, Honduras, and Chiapas, Mexico. Rainfall amounts in these areas will creater the potential for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides through Sat, before the system responsible for the rainfall moves westward into the Pacific. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 58W, from 08N to 17N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of this wave from 10N to 13N between 53W and 58W. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 78W, S of 14N, extending to the Panama-Colombia border, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed S of 12N between 74W and 82W in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 16N17W to 12N22W to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Aside from convection associated with Gonzalo and the tropical waves, both described in sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted N of the ITCZ from 09N to 13N between 48W and 53W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from the NW coast of Cuba to near 26N87W, then becomes stationary and continues NW to the Upper Texas coast. Moderate NE winds are N of this boundary, with gentle E winds to the south. Seas N of the front are 3 to 5 ft, with 1 to 3 ft seas south. For the forecast, the front will dissipate into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico into Sat. A weaker than usual pressure gradient is translating to gentle to moderate trades over most of the basin, with the exception of fresh east winds offshore western Venezuela and NE Colombia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the central Caribbean, 2 ft or less in the NW, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the continued weak pressure will support moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storms Fay and Gonzalo, and on significant swell propagating southward into waters offshore Florida and N of the Bahamas. Otherwise, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection N of 22N between 68W to 76W, ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N70W to the NW coast of Cuba. SW winds in this zone are fresh to locally strong. Behind the front, moderate to fresh N winds prevail. To the east, as surface trough that extends from 26N56W to 24N64W is inducing scattered moderate convection from 22N to 25N between 55W and 60W. A belt of moderate trades dominate waters between 11N and 23N, otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. Moderate seas are present across most of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Sat night, then weaken and stall. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to decrease.