Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
582 AXNT20 KNHC 251555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 30.1N 42.5W at 25/1500 UTC or 900 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 29N-31N between 40W-44W. A gradual turn to the west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few of days. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next few hours. Gradual weakening, however, is still expected through the weekend. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.7N 22.6W at 25/1200 UTC or 100 nm E of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft and a 0900 UTC altimeter pass indicated seas to 15 ft between and just to the north of the eastern Cabo Verde Islands. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 10N-21N between 17W-22W. The NNW motion is expected to continue over the next few days, with a slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. Swells generated b y the storm are expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from 31N72W across the N Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northwest of a line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida peninsula north of 26N. The highest seas of 12-13 ft are occurring north of 30N between 76W-80W as well as up to 12 ft are over the Gulf Stream within 60 NM of the Florida peninsula north of 28N. Buoy 41010 at 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 11 ft seas as of 1520 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to decrease. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, and El Salvador. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at the time. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N into central Colombia, moving westward at 15-20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 16N17W through Tropical Storm Gonzalo to 08N34W. The ITCZ begins at 08N134W to 09N56W. See T.S. Gonzalo in the Special Features section for information on convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 27N89W, where it becomes stationary to the E Texas coast. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring this morning over the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will move E of the Gulf tonight into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America through tomorrow. The cold front north of the Caribbean has reduced the pressure gradient across the Caribbean with trades only gentle to moderate locally fresh. Seas are 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean south of 11N due to the monsoon trough from the northeast Pacific. For the forecast, a weak pressure will support moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. A cold front extends from 31N72W across the N Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. Winds ahead of the front north of 26N are SW fresh to locally strong, while winds behind the front north of 27N are N fresh to locally strong. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northwest of a line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida peninsula north of 26N. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring within 300 NM east of the front north of 23N. There also is a surface trough extending from 24N64W to 25N55W with scattered moderate convection occurring from 22N-25N between 55W-60W. The weak pressure gradient between ridging with the Bermuda-Azores High well north of our waters to lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only gentle to moderate trades over the tropical and subtropical north Atlantic. Seas away from the two tropical storms and cold front are 3-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near Bermuda to near central Cuba Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to decrease.