Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
422 AXPZ20 KNHC 251543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 108.5W, or about 290 nm SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 900 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas are currently around 44 ft (13.5 m). Polo is revealing a clear eye feature on satellite imagery. A solid ring of very cold cloud top temperatures (colder than -75 degree Celsius surrounds the eye. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Polo is forecast to maintain its present motion today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest on Sat and north on Sun. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible over the next 12 to 24 hours. Weakening should begin by Sat. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur today and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 17.9N 123.7W at 25/1500 UTC, moving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are currently around 37 ft (11.5 m). Satellite imagery reveals that Odaly's eye has become much better defined during the overnight hours. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Odalys is expected to turn to the north over the next couple of days. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This intensity is expected to persist overnight, before gradual weakening is forecast heading into the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into Central America and adjacent southern Mexico through tonight, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for tropical development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure in northwest Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to to 11.5N90.5W and to 14N95W. It resumes SW of Odalys at 12N127W to 12N133W and to beyond 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 135W-140W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 129W-135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys located well to the west-southwest of the offshore waters, and on low pressure forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec, that has the potential for tropical development as early as this weekend. Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo as indicated in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.3N 108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.0N 113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to near 23.3N 113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Hurricane Odalys is near 17.6N 124.0W, or about 850 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Odalys will move to near 18.0N 123.7W this afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 22.5N 122.1W late Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Hazardous marine conditions of very rough seas are expected over the Baja California waters this weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N, and mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of 09N as seen in overnight available satellite scatterometer data passes. Locally rough seas are over the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near southwestern Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to the west-southwest of the offshore waters. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near near 17.3N 108.9W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to 17.6N 110.7W late tonight, to near 18.5N 112.2W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 20.0N 113.2W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 110 kt gusts 135 kt, to near 21.7N 113.7W Sun afternoon, and to near 23.3N 113.5W late Sun night with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 26.4N 111.2W late Mon night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. Hurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 18.0N 123.7W this afternoon, to near 18.9N 123.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 19.7N 123.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 123.5W late Sat night with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt. Odalys is forecast to become post-tropical near 21.9N 123.1W Sun afternoon, and near 22.5N 122.1W late Sun night. Odalys will then weaken to a remnant low near 21.7N 121.2W early on Tue. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop south of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W in response to developing broad area of low pressure well to the east-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to steadily build with these winds, possibly reaching a range of 7 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.