Tropical Cyclone Discussion

759
WTNT41 KNHC 251437
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number  22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Fri Sep 25 2026
 
Convection continues to increase mostly on the northern side of 
Fay, while resisting dry air entrainment based as displayed on the 
visible and water vapor imagery. The lastest TAFB Dvorak fix came in 
at T2.5/45 kt, however a recent SAR pass found peak winds around 55 
kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are 
in the range of 37-42 kt. A recent ASCAT pass showed that some of 
the peak wind vectors were around 40 kt, but given the small size 
of Fay, it is possible that the ASCAT is undersampling the peak 
winds. Based on a compromise of all the available data, the initial 
intensity is raised to 50 kt for this advisory. 
 
Additional strengthening is still possible over the next several 
hours, as Fay is in a region of weak deep-layer shear and 
marginally favorable thermodynamic conditions. The statistical 
GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance indicates that northerly wind 
shear will increase tonight, which should help force dry air 
into the cyclone. Therefore, Fay should gradually weaken through 
the period, and degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone during the 
weekend. The current NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement 
with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
 
Fay's initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 275/3 kt and is 
steered by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic. 
The initial position for Fay has been adjusted to the left of the 
previous advisory and the center of the cyclone appears to have 
reformed to the northeast.  By Saturday, a gradual turn toward the 
west-southwest and southwest is forecast while Fay weakens and 
become a vertically shallow remnant low steered by the low-level 
flow. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one 
and lies close to the GDMI ensemble mean and the HCCA corrected 
consensus aid.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 30.1N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 30.1N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 30.0N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 29.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 29.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 60H  28/0000Z 29.0N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/1200Z 28.5N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  29/1200Z 27.8N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED