Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
595 AXNT20 KNHC 250437 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.3W at 0300 UTC, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 13 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Some strengthening is expected overnight before weakening likely commences by Fri afternoon or evening. A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Invest AL90 across the far eastern Atlantic, has been named Tropical Storm Gonzalo, forming to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gonzalo is centered near 13.2N 22.1W at 0300 UTC, moving N-NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gust to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed that the center still remains somewhat elongated but with a large fetch of 30-40 kt easterly winds across the northern semicircle. Peak seas are to 14 ft across this area. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails across the SE semicircle of Gonzalo from 08N to 17N between 16W and 25W. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Cabo Verde Islands. Gonzalo is expected to move north-northwestward during the next couple of days, passing near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. After about 24 hours, moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cooling SSTs are expected to cause a gradual weakening trend. Gonzalo is expected to become a post tropical remnant low to the north of the Cabo Verdes by 72 hours and meander there for a few days as steering currents become very weak. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal today through Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Convection across the area has diminished in the past few hours, with scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms extending from the Gulf of Honduras northeastward across the Cayman Islands, across western Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 51W-52W, S of 14W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave, from 10N to 13.5N between 46W and 51W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 13N into central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted over water in association with this wave, while numerous moderate to strong convection is observed over much of northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania and meanders west the southwestward to low pressure near 13N22W, which has since become T.S. Gonzalo, then extends southwest to 10N25W to near 10N48W. There is no well defined ITCZ further west at this time. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 09.5N between 25W and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from SW Florida near Marco Islands to the central Texas coast, but has recently begun to drift southward to the E of 90W. Widely scattered showers are occurring along the from between 86W and 90W. A more significant cold front has moved into the NE Gulf, and extends from northern Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are found north of the stationary front, while fresh NE winds are spilling across the Florida Bid Bend behind the cold front. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are found within 120 nm N of the stationary boundary, and across the Big Bend. To the south, gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate, except for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where scattered thunderstorms have entered the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a cold front extending from Mobile Bay to the Tampa Bay area will move southwestward and gradually merge with a weakening stationary front across the central Gulf, then progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the Straits of Florida Sat before weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. At the surface, very weak high pressure is across the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and 60W. The resultant pressure gradient across the Caribbean is yielding moderate to fresh trades across the south-central basin S of 15N and between 63W and 73W. Seas in these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate winds prevail with 3 to 4 ft seas, Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except moderate seas across the SW. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the next several days. An upper- level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. A mid to upper-level trough extending from the coasts of the Carolinas southwestward across the eastern Gulf of America has allowed for two frontal systems to move into the area NW Atlantic waters, and also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Straits of Florida, across the Bahamas and northeastward towards Bermuda. A stationary front extends from the Storm-force low center offshore of Cape Hatteras southwestward through 31N73W to south Florida, followed by a reinforcing cold front across the NW waters along 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral. Strong N to NE winds 20-30 kt are filling into the area waters behind the cold front, and producing building N-NE swell moving into the waters N of the Bahamas and W of 65W. Local buoys show seas of 6 ft as far south as Vero Beach, Florida increasing to 13 ft near 30N80W. Ahead of these fronts, a 1010 mb low center is located near 27.5N76W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail across the area E of this low to 68W, and become fresh SW winds ahead of the stationary front and N of 30N. Seas across the area are 4 to 8 ft in building N swell. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N54W. This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 51W and 60W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe, and drapes over T.S. Fay. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere W of 30W. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 12 ft N of 28N between 40W and 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front from near 31N73W to south Florida will gradually merge with the cold front Fri and then shift southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and large N-NE swell will follow the front through Fri, before beginning to subside Sat through Sun.