Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
480 AXPZ20 KNHC 250344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 106.5W, or about 170 nm southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico at 25/0300 UTC, moving moving westward at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft (12.5 m). Polo continues to depict an impressive presentation on satellite imagery, with an eye diameter of 20 nm. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center, except within 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is denoted a wide band within 60 nm of a line from 21N105W to 20N108W and to 17N109W. Polo is forecast to maintain its present motion through Fri, followed by a west-northwestward to northwestward motion on Sat. On the forecast track, the core of Polo will continue to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico overnight. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible overnight, and Polo could become a category 5 hurricane again on Fri. Gradual weakening is forecast to occur starting Fri night and on Sat. Polo is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, northern and southern Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches is possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of central Jalisco and Guerrero. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on Fri and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 17.1N 124.2W, or roughly about 880 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 25/0300 UTC, moving east-northeastward at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are currently up to around 36 ft (11 m). A somewhat ragged eye is seen in satellite imagery. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 90 nm of the center in W semicircle. Odalys is expected to maintain its current motion through tonight. A gradual turn toward the northeast is expected Fri, followed by a turn toward the north by the weekend. Some intensity fluctuations are possible during the next day or so, followed by weakening through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into Central America and adjacent southern Mexico through Fri night, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for tropical development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia westward to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern Costa Rica, then to 10N85W to 09N89W to 13N92W and to 14N97.5W. It then resumes to the SW of Polo at 14N108W to 12N114W and to 16N118W. It resumes once again to the SW of Odalys at 13N125W to 12N130W to 11N137W and to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 09N between 81W-92W, and from 03N to 12N between 92W-96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to the west-southwest of the offshore waters. Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 17.4N 108.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it moves to near 17.5N 110.0W Fri evening, to near 18.0N 111.6W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 19.2N 112.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, to near 20.8N 113.7W Sun morning, and to near 22.6N 114.0W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 25.7N 112.5W late Mon with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Hurricane Odalys is near 17.1N 124.2W, or about 880 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving east-northeastward at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Odalys will move to near 17.7N 123.6W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 18.5N 123.3W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt and to near 19.7N 123.0W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 122.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, move to near 21.9N 122.7W Sun morning and become post-tropical and move to near 22.4N 122.4W Sun evening. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low over near 21.7N 121.7W late Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 09N, and mostly gentle to moderate south-soutwhest winds south of 09N as seen in latest available satellite scatterometer data passes. Locally rough seas have propagated into the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near southwestern Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys located well to the west-southwest of the offshore waters. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is forecast to move near 17.4N 108.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it moves to near 17.5N 110.0W Fri evening, to near 18.0N 111.6W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 120 kt gusts 145 kt, to near 19.2N 112.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt, to near 20.8N 113.7W Sun morning, and to near 22.6N 114.0W Sun evening with maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Polo is forecast to move to near 25.7N 112.5W late Mon with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt. Hurricane Odalys is forecast to move to near 17.7N 123.6W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 18.5N 123.3W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt and to near 19.7N 123.0W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 122.9W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, move to near 21.9N 122.7W Sun morning and become post-tropical and move to near 22.4N 122.4W Sun evening. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low over near 21.7N 121.7W late Mon. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected to develop south of the monsoon trough over the weekend west of about 130W in response to a developing area of low pressure well to the east-sooutheast of the Hawaiian Islands. Seas are expected to steadily build with these winds to a possible range of 7 to 10 ft. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.