Tropical Cyclone Discussion
314 WTPZ41 KNHC 240832 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 The convective pattern of Odalys has changed little over the past several hours. A persistent area of deep convection with cloud-top temperatures near -80C remains concentrated near the inner core. Subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, along with objective satellite intensity estimates, have held steady and generally range from 67 to 77 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. In addition, recent scatterometer passes over the cyclone were helpful in refining the initial wind radii. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/7 kt. Odalys is currently being steered by the deep-layer flow between a mid- to upper-level trough located to its northwest and a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. This steering pattern should maintain the east-northeastward heading for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast and eventually to the north at a slightly slower speed. Later in the forecast period, the track becomes highly uncertain due to a potential binary interaction with Hurricane Polo. Additionally, as Odalys weakens, model differences regarding the vertical depth of the cyclone, and exactly when it becomes steered by the shallow low-level flow. The updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is in good agreement with the HCCA and GDMI aids. Environmental conditions appear favorable enough to support slight intensification during the next day or so, with low to moderate vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and abundant mid-level moisture. After that time, the cyclone will encounter a progressively less favorable environment characterized by increasing vertical wind shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and mid-level dry air. This should induce a gradual, then more steady, weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA corrected consensus aid. Given the increasingly hostile environment, the system will struggle to maintain deep convection later in the period. Simulated infrared satellite imagery from the global models shows the cyclone becoming devoid of deep convection by 96 h, and the updated forecast now indicates the system will become post-tropical at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.1N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.5N 123.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 20.2N 123.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 29/0600Z 21.8N 121.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW