Marine/aviation Tropical Cyclone Advisory

307
WTPZ22 KNHC 240832
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172026
0900 UTC THU SEP 24 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 103.5W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  923 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  35SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT.......110NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 103.5W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 103.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 104.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 111.9W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 26.1N 112.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 103.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 24/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z