Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
265 AXNT20 KNHC 240543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay: Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 40.0W at 24/0300 UTC or 810 nm W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength and move westward through Fri morning then begin to weaken through this weekend. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Surface low pressure is developing around 11.5N along a tropical wave with an axis around 19W-20W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N, E of 23W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface off the W coast of Africa, with peak winds around 25 kt in SW winds occurring S of 10N. This low pressure may become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves NW to N. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75.5W. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 19N-20N that has potential for tropical formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 16W, moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 15N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11.5N between 60W and 64W, while numerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well inland from 01N to 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and meanders southward to 1010 low pressure near 11.5N20W then continues westward to 10.5N37W to 08N59W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N48W continues to the coast of Guyana near 09N58W. Beyond convection associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 23W and 33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 10.5N between 49W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Deep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf from the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection is noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the Straits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the west, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface trough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the central Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure prevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold front extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and across the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to moderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri and produce a slight increase in winds and seas. The front will shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean, and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. To the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the A weak pressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward to northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto Rico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered showers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior portions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to locally strong winds are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the basin to generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of Bermuda. A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America continues to support scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the south of an approaching cold front offshore of the SE U.S. and is interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough has developed within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits of Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across the NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building seas to 5-7 ft. Another upper- level low is drifting westward near 26N53W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean. This feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26.5N between 50W and 56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W. Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 27N between 36W and 43W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight. An upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening low pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal boundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds and large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun.