Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
262 AXPZ20 KNHC 240334 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 16.0N 102.4W at 24/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft or 12.5 m. Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 120 nm of the center, except 150 nm W quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in the E semicircle and 240 nm in the W semicircle of Polo. Polo is moving toward the northwest. A turn toward the west- northwest is expected on Thu and Fri, followed by a northwestward motion on Sat. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico through Thu morning before moving farther out to sea. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional near-term strengthening is possible, and Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 15.6N 126.7W at 24/0300 UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are around 26 ft or 8.0 m. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center, except 60 nm SW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 118W and 130W. Odalys is moving toward the east. An eastward to east-northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast then north later this week. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into Central America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder of the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. Rainfall amounts of over 6 inches are possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for tropical development. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 93W north of 05N is no longer discernible and likely was absorbed into the outer, large circulation of Major Hurricane Polo off to the NW. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from across western Panama and eastern Costa Rica to the coast near 09N83W to 15N96W, then resumes S of Odalys from 10N131W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection described in the sections above, isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 77W and 92W, from 02N to 05N between 98W and 102W, and within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 126W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the offshore waters. Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues in association with a surface trough in a central Gulf of California. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.5N 103.7W Thu morning, 16.9N 105.6W Thu evening, 17.1N 107.5W Fri morning, 17.3N 109.4W Fri evening, 17.9N 111.0W Sat morning, and 19.2N 112.2W Sat evening near the Revillagigedo Islands. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 113.3W late Sun as it approaches Baja California Sur. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.8N 122.7W late Sun as it slows just beyond the Baja California offshore waters. Also, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting early Thu through the end of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next seven days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters. Moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is impacting portions of the offshore waters as described with the monsoon trough above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds, with generally moderate seas, are expected to prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the offshore waters. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 16.5N 103.7W Thu morning, 16.9N 105.6W Thu evening, 17.1N 107.5W Fri morning, 17.3N 109.4W Fri evening, 17.9N 111.0W Sat morning, and 19.2N 112.2W Sat evening near the Revillagigedo Islands. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 113.3W late Sun as it approaches Baja California Sur. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.8N 122.7W late Sun as it slows just beyond the Baja California offshore waters. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas into the weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next seven days.