Tropical Cyclone Discussion
227 WTPZ41 KNHC 240250 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 The convective organization of Odalys has remained largely unchanged over the past several hours. However, the hurricane continues to produce deep convection with cloud-top temperatures around -80 C expanding north and west of the center. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB came in at 4.5/77 kt, supported by objective estimates from UW-CIMSS, namely DMINT and ADT, at 78 and 72 kt, respectively. Given these data and the deeper convection, the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 85/6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue through the next day or so before turning toward the northeast and then north. Odalys is being steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico. Beyond day 3, potential interaction with Hurricane Polo complicates the track forecast of Odalys, and model spread increases significantly at this time. The current NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Odalys is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for the next 24 h, which could allow for additional strengthening or at least intensity maintenance. Thereafter, increasing westerly vertical wind shear, lower SSTs, and mid-level dry air will induce a steady weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and remains aligned with the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.6N 126.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 16.1N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.5N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 20.8N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 22.3N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW