Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
102 WTPZ32 KNHC 240243 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 900 PM CST Wed Sep 23 2026 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE POLO MOVING SLOWLY OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF GUERRERO... SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 102.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has extended the Tropical Storm Warning west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * West of Manzanillo to Playa Perula A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coast of southwestern Mexico and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 102.4 West. Polo is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thursday and Friday, followed by a northwestward motion on Saturday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to remain offshore of southwestern Mexico through Thursday morning before moving farther out to sea. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional near-term strengthening is possible, and Polo is expected to remain a powerful major hurricane for the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area along the coast of Mexico tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along the coast of Mexico late tonight and on Thursday. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on Friday and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.