Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
280 AXNT20 KNHC 232326 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fay: Newly redeveloped Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 30.1N 39.2W at 23/2100 UTC or 770 nm SW of the Azores, moving W at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Winds of 25 to 30 kt, rough seas, and numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are noted within about 150 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Fay is forecast to strengthen as it continues moving west tonight, and is expected to become a tropical storm. Gradual weakening should begin by this weekend. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Low pressure is developing around 10N along a tropical wave with an axis around 18W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N, E of 22W. This low pressure may become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves NW to N. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from the NW coastal waters of Jamaica, westward across the Cayman Islands to 87W and then northward across east-central Cuba to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Heavy rainfall in these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, S of 16W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 45W and 54W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 16N between 61W and 66W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N17W to 07N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N58W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 22W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection continues across the Florida Keys southwestward toward the Yucatan Channel in association with a deep layer trough. Otherwise, mainly gentle NE winds dominate with slight seas. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri. The front will shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure in the far western Caribbean producing heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. A weak pressure pattern prevails across the basin. Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin, where seas are 2 to 4 ft, while fresh winds are S of 14N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on newly re- developed Tropical Depression Fay well east-southeast of Bermuda. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across eastern Cuba and over much of the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters W of 67W. This activity is occurring due to the combination of ample moisture across the area and unstable conditions created by the persistent and deep layered upper trough across the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N50W. This feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 46W and 53.5W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic. This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 26.5N between 57W and 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across this. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before decreasing on Sat.