Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
916 AXPZ20 KNHC 232125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.7N 102.4W at 23/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are currently around 40 ft or 12 m. Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 180 nm of the center. A continued NW motion is expected through Thu, with a turn toward the WNW thereafter, through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during the next few days. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 15.5N 127.2W at 23/2100 UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are around 25 ft or 8 m. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Odalys is moving toward the E, and a general ENE or E motion with a decrease in forward speed is anticipated for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the NE then N for the end of the week. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by a weakening trend at the end of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into Central America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder of the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. Rainfall amounts of over 6 inches are possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for tropical development. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 05N, drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 87W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 13N95W, then resumes west of Hurricane Odalys near 13N130W and continues to 13N140W. Aside from the convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo. Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues in association with a surface trough in a southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 15.7N 102.4W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Polo will move to 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.7N 105.0W Thu afternoon, and 16.9N 106.9W Fri morning. Hurricane Polo will reach 17.2N 108.9W Fri afternoon, 17.7N 110.6W Sat morning, and 18.9N 112.0W Sat afternoon. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to the north of the Revillagigedo Islands Sun afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 15.5N 127.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving east at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Odalys will move to 15.8N 126.0W Thu morning, 16.4N 124.7W Thu afternoon, and 17.3N 123.6W Fri morning. Hurricane Odalys will be near 18.1N 123.1W Fri afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 122.9W Sat morning, then reach 20.2N 122.7W Sat afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to the west of the Revillagigedo Islands Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next seven days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters. Moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the coasts of Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds, with generally moderate seas, are expected to prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate trades are over the waters from 14N to 20N to the W of 129W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell within this area, highest to the W of Odalys to 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 15.7N 102.4W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Polo will move to 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.7N 105.0W Thu afternoon, and 16.9N 106.9W Fri morning. Hurricane Polo will reach 17.2N 108.9W Fri afternoon, 17.7N 110.6W Sat morning, and 18.9N 112.0W Sat afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 15.5N 127.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving east at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Odalys will move to 15.8N 126.0W Thu morning, 16.4N 124.7W Thu afternoon, and 17.3N 123.6W Fri morning. Hurricane Odalys will be near 18.1N 123.1W Fri afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 19.1N 122.9W Sat morning, then reach 20.2N 122.7W Sat afternoon. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas into the weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next seven days.