Tropical Cyclone Discussion

619
WTNT41 KNHC 232035
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Depression Fay Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
900 PM GMT Wed Sep 23 2026
 
Convection has redeveloped around the center of Fay and has 
persisted during the day.  An earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the 
system still had a well-defined circulation. Therefore, Fay meets 
the criteria to be classified as a tropical cyclone again.  
The earlier ASCAT pass showed a maximum wind vector of around 
31 kt and the most recent TAFB Dvorak classification was at T1.5/25 
kt.  Based on the given data, Fay's intensity is estimated to be 30 
kt.
 
The cyclone is moving just a little south of due west, or around 
260/8 kt, as it moves to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge to 
the northwest. Fay is expected to continue on this general motion 
for the next several days. The current NHC track forecast is in 
line with the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids.
 
There is a brief opportunity for Fay to regain tropical storm 
status during the next day or so, however wind shear is expected to
increase again after 36 h. This should lead to the cyclone 
gradually weakening again, with the system becoming a post-tropical 
remnant low by 60 h, and then dissipating around 96 h, as 
suggested by simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF global 
model.  The current NHC intensity forecast track is in line with 
both the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 30.1N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 29.9N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 29.9N  41.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 29.9N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 29.7N  43.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 29.5N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1800Z 29.5N  45.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED