Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory
261 WTPA32 PHFO 231448 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Advisory Number 12 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Wed Sep 23 2026 ...INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 154.4W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII ABOUT 525 MI...840 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of the state later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 154.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected for the next day or so. A sharp turn to the north and north-northeast is expected on Thursday, with this motion continuing through the end of the week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today, with further strengthening to a hurricane likely on Thursday and possibly a major hurricane by this weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Fifteen-E can be found in the can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO. WIND: There is an increasing risk of wind impacts in the Hawaiian Islands regardless of the exact track of this system. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will produce rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island with maximum amounts of 35 inches. This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches expected across Maui. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides possible across Maui, especially in areas of high terrain, Across the remainder of the Hawaiian Islands, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches are expected with isolated flooding possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep15.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Fifteen-E are expected to reach the east and south-facing shores of the Big Island on Friday, spreading westward and building through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.