Tropical Cyclone Discussion
241 WTPZ41 KNHC 231445 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Odalys has not changed much in organization since earlier this morning. The hurricane is producing very deep convection near the center with most of the convective banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Upper-level outflow is limited over the northwestern quadrant. The advisory intensity is held at 65 kt for now, in agreement with a subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a recent DPRINT objective estimate from UW-CIMSS. The system continues to move east-northeastward with an initial motion estimate of 070/7 kt. This general motion is expected to continue for the next 24-48 hours as Odalys is steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico. A turn toward the northeast and then north, on the southeastern side of the trough, is forecast in a couple of days. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern becomes ill-defined, and potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could complicate the track of Odalys late in the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance. Based on the latest Decay-SHIPS model input, Odalys will be experiencing moderate vertical wind shear for the next 48-72 hours. Some strengthening is likely while the cyclone traverses sufficiently warm ocean waters during the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, increasing shear and marginal SSTs ar expected to bring about a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is at the high end of the objective guidance. This is similar to the previous NHC prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 16.0N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 16.2N 126.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 16.8N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 18.4N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 19.3N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 22.1N 122.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW