Tropical Cyclone Discussion
166 WTPZ41 KNHC 230841 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Odalys has recovered from the earlier dry air intrusion. Deep convection has developed over the low-level center, with a convective shield that has cold cloud tops near -80 C. In addition, a recent WSF-M microwave pass revealed a nearly closed low-level convective ring and a developing eye feature. A subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB has increased to T4.0/65 kt, and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 55 and 68 kt. Based on these estimates and the improved structural organization in the microwave data, the initial intensity is set at 65 kt, making Odalys a hurricane. The initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue in the short term as Odalys is steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the eastern Pacific and a strong ridge located over central Mexico. A turn toward the northeast and then north is forecast in a couple of days. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern becomes increasingly complex, and potential interaction with Hurricane Polo will likely complicate the future track of Odalys. The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and lies near the previous the HCCA and GDMI track aids. Vertical wind shear is forecast to begin relaxing as Odalys traverses warm sea surface temperatures, which should allow for steady strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. By 48 to 72 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase once again, SSTs will cool, and Odalys may begin to experience upper-level outflow from Hurricane Polo. At the same time, the cyclone will move into a drier mid-level environment, which should induce a weakening trend. The official NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity, and is closest to the HCCA and GDMI intensity aids. Toward the end of the forecast period, model-simulated infrared satellite imagery indicates that Odalys will succumb to a drier environment. As the system becomes devoid of organized deep convection, it is expected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone, which is now shown in the latest NHC forecast at day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 15.9N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 25/1800Z 18.7N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0600Z 19.5N 122.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 27/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 28/0600Z 22.3N 121.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL