Tropical Cyclone Discussion
663 WTPZ41 KNHC 230242 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026 Odalys appears to have been impacted by mid-level dry air entrainment earlier tonight, which disrupted the deep convection that had been occurring near and to the west of the partially exposed center. In addition, a recent SSMIS pass indicated moderate northerly wind shear had displaced the mid-level center to the south of the low-level circulation and was displacing the remaining convection to the south and east of the center. However, new convection is developing near the core of Odalys, with cloud top temperatures rapidly cooling to below -80 C. The latest TAFB intensity estimate was 3.5/55 kt, while objective intensity estimates range from 53-67 kt. The intensity is held at 60 kt for this advisory. The strong tropical storm is moving toward the east-northeast around 8 kt, and this motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days as the system is guided by a strong long-wave trough over the far eastern Pacific. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged slightly to the left through the first 24 h. A turn toward the northeast, followed by a northward motion, is forecast by late this week as an upper-level low strengthens and approaches Odalys from the northwest. Beyond 72 h, the track forecast becomes more uncertain, as a potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could influence Odalys' motion while the major hurricane moves parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous forecast beyond 48 h, toward the HCCA solution. Weakening wind shear and sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures should support gradual strengthening over the next 24 h or so, and Odalys is expected to become a hurricane later tonight. By late this week, however, increasing wind shear, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable upper-level outflow associated with Hurricane Polo are expected to induce gradual weakening through this weekend. The current NHC intensity forecast lies near the top of the model guidance envelope and remains close to the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 15.5N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 15.8N 126.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 16.4N 125.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 17.9N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.6N 122.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 21.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH