Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
999 AXPZ20 KNHC 230009 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.6N 101.5W, or about 185 nm m south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico at 22/2100 UTC, and nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 45 ft or 14 m. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a small eye as it continues to intensify. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within of the center in the W semicircle. Polo is nearly stationary, but a slow northwestward motion is expected tonight followed by a generally west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wed and Wed night. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 15.1N 130.1W, or about 1235 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving east-northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft or 7 m. Satellite imagery shows that its deep convection of numerous strong type intensity is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 270 nm of the center in the center in the SE quadrant, 300 nm of the center in the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Odalys is forecast to maintain its present motion over the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the northeast late this week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo and Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave and 60 nm east of the wave from 12N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across southern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N89W. No significant convection is presently noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh northwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts 195 kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near 16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, to near 17.4N 108.5W Fri afternoon and to near 18.7N 111.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northwest winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador has diminished this afternoon. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. A tropical depression could from this area of low pressure late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly away from the offshore waters. Swells from this system may potentially impact the western portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh trades are over the waters roughly from 15N to 23N west of 134W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell within this area of fresh trades. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts 195 kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near 16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt and to near 17.4N 108.5W Fri afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.7N 111.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 129.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.4N 128.0W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.8N 126.6W late Wed night, to near 16.5N 125.3W Thu afternoon, the begin to weaken as it moves to near 17.3N 124.1W late Thu night and to near 18.0N 123.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest of the week.