Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

018
ABPZ20 KNHC 222328
TWOEP 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Major 
Hurricane Polo, located less than 200 miles offshore of southern 
Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Odalys, located well west-southwest of 
the southern tip of Baja California.
Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (Former TD 15-E):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the remnants of Tropical 
Depression Fifteen-E, located roughly 430 miles south-southeast of 
South Point, Hawaii, are gradually becoming better organized. 
Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form in a day or so, while the 
system moves slowly west-northwestward. Heavy rains associated with 
this system are forecast to spread over the southeastern Hawaiian 
Islands starting on Wednesday and continuing through Saturday, 
possibly resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides 
for portions of the Big Island and Maui. Interests in the Hawaiian 
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to 
the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental 
conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend 
as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, 
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.